The frameworks and short cuts that top performers use to sort out good ideas from bad ones and navigate complexity are the subject of the book Super Thinking.
Hanlon’s Razor
A person’s behavior can be explained in a variety of ways in any circumstance, according to the most respectful interpretation (MRI). MRI requests that you treat the other parties’ actions with the utmost respect.
Hanlon’s razor advises against ever attributing to maliciousness what carelessness more than adequately explains.
The Unconscious Mental Models
Nudging: You may receive directional cues from subtle wording or other factors in the environment.
Anchoring: The propensity to base judgments unduly on first impressions.
Availability bias: When a bias or distortion creeps into your impartial perception of reality as a result of knowledge that was just recently made available to you.
Understanding others point of view
You must therefore find ways to improve your empathy in order to gain a better understanding of what other people are actually thinking in order to be mistaken less frequently when thinking about people.
There are two sides to every story when two people are at odds. The third story is the one that a third, unbiased observer would tell.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
The gambler’s fallacy and the base rate fallacy should not be believed.
Data correlations and anecdotal evidence are useful for generating hypotheses, but correlation does not imply causation, so solid conclusions still require well-designed experiments.
Look for tried-and-true experimental designs that demonstrate statistical significance, such as randomized controlled experiments or A/B testing.
The Pareto Principle
Find the 80/20 in any activity by using the Pareto principle, and you’ll always have more leverage.
Recognize diminishing returns and stay away from bad investments.
To avoid present bias, use commitment and the default effect. To avoid loss aversion and the sunk cost fallacy, use periodic evaluations.
Fundamental Attribution Error
The fundamental attribution error, where you frequently make mistakes by attributing other people’s actions to their internal, or fundamental, motivations rather than external factors, is something psychologists refer to as. The most respectful interpretation and Hanlon’s razor are essentially attempts to overcome this error.
Flex your market power
- Discover a secret and center your career or business around it while using customer development to look for product/market fit (or any other “fit” that applies to the circumstance).
- In your pursuit of product/market fit, strive to be like a heat-seeking missile that expertly negotiates the idea maze. For confirmation, look for indications that you have reached a resonance.
De-risking: implementing the first principles approach
You purposefully start over when you argue from first principles. You are deliberately avoiding the trap of conventional wisdom, which might end up being incorrect.
De-risking is the practice of testing your hypotheses in the real world in order to be mistaken less frequently.
Ockham’s Razor
According to Ockham’s Razor, the most straightforward explanation is most likely to be accurate.
Consider your explanation of a given circumstance, dissect it into its component assumptions, and consider whether each one is necessary before proceeding. What proof do I have that it ought to endure? Is it a fictitious dependence?
First Principles Thinking
An inverse way of thinking about a problem can lead to new approaches and solutions.
Arguing from first principles is the main mental model that will help you develop as a thinker. It involves thinking from the ground up, using the fundamental components of what you believe to be true to construct sound (and occasionally novel) conclusions. This is the practical starting point for being less wrong.
Decisions, Decisions
Consider upgrading to a cost-benefit analysis or decision tree when tempted to use a pro-con list.
Run a sensitivity analysis across inputs when making any quantitative assessment to identify key drivers and understand where you might need to seek more precision in your assumptions. Any discount rate used should be carefully considered.
Unlocking people’s potential
People are not the same everywhere. They have various personalities, strengths, and objectives and come from various backgrounds. To be the best manager, you must manage the person, taking into consideration each person’s particular set of traits and present difficulties.
Create special roles that highlight the motivations and strengths of each person. Only assign people to positions where they can succeed.
The Notorious Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is the propensity for people to gather and interpret new information in a biased manner in order to support existing beliefs.
Since confirmation bias is so difficult to overcome, a related phenomenon known as the “backfire effect” has been proposed to explain why people tend to stick with a position even after being presented with overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Holding two different beliefs together
Disconfirmation bias, in which you place a higher burden of proof on the ideas you don’t want to believe, can also lead you to cling to false beliefs.
Cognitive dissonance, the stress experienced when holding two opposing, dissonant beliefs at once, can be used to explain the harmful effects of confirmation bias and related models.
Your Frame Of Reference
You should always take your frame of reference into consideration when making decisions or trying to solve problems in order to be as objective as possible. A frame-of-reference mental trap is framing.
The way you frame a situation or explanation is referred to as “framing.” Your perspective will undoubtedly have an impact on you, but you don’t want to be influenced without realizing it.
Testing the assumptions
There is a chance that one or more of your hypotheses will turn out to be incorrect, which means the conclusions you draw could also be incorrect.
The next step is to put these theories to the test, either confirming or refuting them, and then revise your approach accordingly.
Overcoming Confirmation Bias: Thinking Gray
You might view situations as either black or white, but reality is more nuanced and has shades of gray. But to be truly effective, a leader must be able to recognize the nuances of a given circumstance in order to choose the best course of action. One approach is to force yourself to write down different cases for a given decision or appoint different members of a group to do so.
Spend your time wisely
Choosing what to do depends on how closely it aligns with your north star.
No multitasking! Just concentrate your attention on one of these truly important tasks at a time, and give it top priority.
Choose options based on models of opportunity costs.
Dealing with conflict
Examine conflict situations from the perspective of game theory. Examine whether your circumstance is comparable to well-known situations like the prisoner’s dilemma, the ultimatum game, or a war of attrition.
Think about how you can be more persuasive by utilizing influence models like reciprocity, commitment, liking, social proof, scarcity, and authority to persuade people to support your cause.
