Declinism is the belief that societies tend towards decline, often linked with rosy retrospection-our tendency to view the past more favourably and the future more negatively. It may seem harmless, but declinism can cloud judgement and lead to bad decisions. How can you avoid it?
The history of declinism
Declinism is not new. In 1776 and 1788, Edward Gibbon wrote The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire in which he argues that the Roman empire collapsed due to a gradual loss of civic virtue among its citizens
- The word “declinism” became popular after German historian and philosopher Oswald Spengler published his book series The Decline of the West
- In his book, he claims that history had witnessed the rise and fall of several civilizations, such as the Egyptian, the Classical, the Chinese and the Mesoamerican civilizations
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When declinism clouds our judgement
It can become a self-fulfilling prophecy
- An overly rosy outlook on the past can cause us to ignore our past mistakes, in a way that prevents us from learning from them
- The belief that the future will be worse may lead us to repeat the same behaviors without betting on ourselves or other favorable outcomes
How to avoid declinism
Beware of rosy retrospection
- Whenever you feel overly positive about a past experience, remember that you may be judging the past disproportionately more positively than you are judging the present
- Practice calculated optimism
- Focus on long-term success
- Even if things get hard, keep on investing in yourself, your loved ones and your projects
- The only real failure is stagnation
