When you are pressed for time, how can you quickly tell the difference between a strong argument and a weak argument, and why does it matter? Some weak arguments are more obvious than others. Let’s look at how you can quickly spot these, especially when you need to make a quick judgment.
The nature of a weak argument
Weak arguments have two ingredients: inductive reasoning and uncertain premise
- Inductive reasoning: The argument should move from specific observations to broad generalizations
- Uncertain premise: The specific observations used to build the argument should either have a low probability or be based on personal opinions rather than facts
- If the premise is unclear, the argument is weak
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Here are some of the original articles:
- Brain hacks to improve your productivity
How to quickly spot weak arguments
Look for arguments using the “surely” operator
- Compare the conclusion of the argument to a coin toss – even if the premise is true, you only have a 50% chance for the conclusion to be true – you may as well toss a coin!
- Map the argument onto the pyramid of disagreement – types of argument into a seven-point hierarchy going from weakest to strongest
- The weakest type of argument is name-calling, followed by ad hominem attacks and then ad hominem
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